Trust your mind or follow your gut?

Being intuitive sounds great, but taking a moment to reflect could give you a chance at better judgments

By Sha Miao

“Intuition is a very powerful thing, more powerful than intellect, in my opinion,” said Steve Jobs. Intuition often inspires a multitude of ideas, but creating a tech giant like Jobs did requires more than just instinct. For most of us, simply relying on gut feelings for problem-solving may only work best in movies and novels.

“There’s an idea that we should follow our intuition,” says Andrew Meyer, Research Assistant Professor with the Department of Marketing at the Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK) Business School. “Obviously, we need to act and can’t be paralysed by reflection, but the idea that there’s any special insight in whatever first comes to mind is probably wrong.”

Since the 1970s, two world-renowned psychologists, the late Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, have highlighted flawed patterns in decision-making with their theories of cognitive bias. A notable example is their famous Linda problem:

Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken, and very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and also participated in anti-nuclear demonstrations. Which of the following is more likely:

1) Linda is a bank teller; or

2) Linda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist movement.

Most people guess the second option because Linda “seems” like a feminist. However, the likelihood of two events occurring together is always less than or equal to either individual event. Therefore, the first option is more likely. This conjunction fallacy exemplifies how intuition can blind us to logic—a tendency measured by tools like the cognitive reflection test.

More than just a math test

In a recent paper, Professor Meyer worked with Kahneman before the Nobel laureate passed away in 2024 to explore the cognitive reflection test, a seemingly simple test to measure how likely someone is to stop and think before jumping to conclusions.

Unlike standard mathematical tests that simply assess how well individuals can compute or solve equations, the cognitive reflection test has intuitively compelling wrong answers (like Linda seeming like a feminist) that allow it to evaluate “cognitive reflection” – the ability to override an incorrect gut response and reach a correct answer. This ability is crucial in many areas of life, from making better decisions at work, having the patience to wait for larger rewards, and being less prone to fall for misleading information.

“You could think about a distinction between the ability to think and the tendency to think,” says Professor Meyer. “Some people might be very smart but prone to stick with initial intuitions instead of actually thinking. The cognitive reflection test is supposed to measure this latter tendency.”

“The tendency to stop and think is important for avoiding all kinds of traps in daily life, from phishing emails to overly sweet desserts.”

Professor Andrew Meyer

Cognitive reflection is a distinct and measurable trait describes recent research by Professor Meyer along with Kahneman, as well as Shane Frederick of the Yale School of Management, Maya Bar-Hillel of the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, and Yigal Attali of Duolingo. They compared the cognitive reflection test with a standard math test to see which was a better predictor.

In the study, 4,407 participants were recruited from four different online platforms, and each participant was administered an eight-item cognitive reflection test and an eight-item mathematical aptitude test.

The questions in the cognitive reflection test appear simple, like the classic bat and ball problem: A bat and a ball cost $1.10 in total. The bat costs $1.00 more than the ball. How much does the ball cost?

Most people quickly and intuitively guess 10 cents, because 1.10 and 1.00 differ by 0.10, but the correct answer is five cents. On their variant of this problem, only 26 percent of participants answered correctly.

The questions are designed to trick people into relying on gut feelings rather than taking a moment to think it through. However, the items are still math problems, so they test mathematical abilities. In a previous paper, the Bar-Hillel and Attali had argued that that was all these items tested.

Although the standard math test without intuitive lures was better at predicting numeracy skills, the cognitive reflection test was a better predictor of religious and paranormal beliefs, patience, and the ability to tolerate risk. This suggests that the cognitive reflection test measures something unique beyond math skills.

Why reflection matters

The key aspect of the cognitive reflection test is its intuitive lures—easy responses that seem right, but are designed to catch the participants off guard. These layers help distinguish between those who rely on quick, intuitive answers and those who reflect.

“The cognitive reflection test has been shown to correlate with lots of behaviours like investment decisions, belief in God, and work performance,” Professor Meyer says. “If it was just a math test, those relations might mean something very different than if the cognitive reflection test was actually measuring the tendency to question initial intuitions.”

The study also found that those who scored high on the cognitive reflection test are more sceptical of claims that lack evidence, such as paranormal beliefs or verbiage that sounds deep but is meaningless.

Cognitive reflection is a powerful trait that plays a critical role in both the personal and professional realms. Consumers can apply cognitive reflection when choosing between many products to help them think about the long-term benefits and costs. In professional settings, cognitive reflection can lead to better strategic planning and risk management. In personal situations, it can help manage finances better or make better choices about health and education.

The cognitive reflection test is a useful tool for highlighting this trait and identifying people who possess it. It emphasises the importance of thinking about things in a reflective way. “The tendency to stop and think is important for avoiding all kinds of traps in daily life, from phishing emails to overly sweet desserts,” Professor Meyer adds. “Being able to measure it could be useful for large employers.”