How to sway the minds of climate change deniers

Amid the increasing emphasis on sustainability across industries, how can businesses mitigate potential risks associated with climate change scepticism?

By Pan Jingyi, Principal Writer, China Business Knowledge @ CUHK

Each year, scientists issue warnings about breaking temperature records, and regrettably, this troubling trend continues. The latest World Meteorological Organisation State of the Climate Update indicates that 2024 is on track to be the warmest year, with a global mean surface temperature of 1.54 °C above pre-industrial levels during the first nine months.

From the severe drought in central China during the summer of 2024 to Spain’s devastating floods in October of the same year, people around the world are grappling with increasingly frequent extreme climate events. However, a 2023 report by French energy company EDF reveals that 36 per cent of the global population continues to question the human origins of climate change.

“As extreme weather events become more prevalent, our findings indicate that climate change sceptics would shift their beliefs after experiencing these events by themselves.”

Professor Hong Ying-yi

Experiencing anomalous weather conditions first-hand may influence people’s perceptions of climate change, but what about those who believe in climate change conspiracy theories? Will they still trust the conspiracy after experiencing the direct effect of global warming? How does scepticism surrounding climate change impact businesses? And what can companies do to foster scientific literacy on this critical issue?

“As extreme weather events become more prevalent, our findings indicate that climate change sceptics would shift their beliefs after experiencing these events by themselves,” says Hong Ying-yi, Choh-Ming Li Professor of Management at the Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK) Business School.

In a study titled Hotter weather, less of a hoax? Testing the longitudinal association between experience of temperature anomalies and belief in climate change conspiracy theories, Professor Hong and her collaborators investigate the links between the experience of unusual temperatures and climate change conspiracy beliefs.

The findings could have implications for businesses in sectors sensitive to climate conditions. A report titled Investing in the green economy 2024 by the London Stock Exchange Group unveils that the green economy has been second only to the technology sector in growth and financial performance in the past decade, generating a total annual revenue of almost US$5 trillion in 2023. Understanding public perceptions of climate change would be useful for businesses to develop strategies in communication, marketing, and sustainability practices.

“Companies that care about sustainability would grow their brand equity in the long run,” she adds. “Businesses that ‘walk the talk’ can convince their stakeholders to understand the importance of sustainability and mitigate potential risks associated with climate change scepticism.”

Hotter weather, fewer conspiracy beliefs?

Working together with Chan Hoi-Wing of the Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Wang Xue of Beijing Normal University, Tam Kim-Pong of the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, and Huang Bo of the University of Hong Kong, Professor Hong conducted two studies in the US and China.

The team recruited around 1,000 adults from each country to complete online surveys. The results indicated that individuals who perceived unusual summer temperatures were less likely to believe in climate change conspiracy theories in both countries. In the US, the effects lasted even four months later.

Why do experiences of unusual temperatures affect people’s climate change beliefs? Professor Hong and her collaborators identified two possible reasons. The first one is the perceived psychological distance, referring to how individuals perceive the relevance of climate change—whether it will affect their local area, people in other countries, or future generations.

As the psychological distance diminishes, individuals are more inclined to view climate change as an imminent and pressing threat. “The experience of hotter local temperatures would lead to less perceived psychological distance of climate change and, in turn, attenuate climate change conspiracy beliefs,” Professor Hong concludes.

Secondly, the team found that experiencing hotter temperatures also triggered stronger negative emotions toward climate change, leading to fewer conspiracy beliefs. “Negative emotions may make people more vigilant of potential threats and, therefore, would be more likely to reject the hoax conspiracy narratives,” Professor Hong explains.

However, unlike the subjective experience above, the researchers observed a mixed picture regarding objective temperature anomalies. Objective temperature anomalies refer to the actual measured anomalies or deviations from a long-term average temperature for a specific location and time period.

They found that objective summer temperature anomalies were associated with higher climate change conspiracy beliefs in some contexts. In the American sample, a hotter summer was linked to increased conspiracy beliefs, contradicting the initial finding. This suggests that personal experiences and perceptions matter the most in shaping conspiracy beliefs.

Strong conspiracy mentality can be changed

Extreme weather events often prompt individuals to seek out more information about climate change, and more exposure through discussion and other means of communication could promote climate change concerns and beliefs. The researchers found that climate change information exposure was linked to lower conspiracy beliefs in the long term, though the effects were less noticeable in the short term. “The beneficial effect of climate change discussion, information seeking, and information exposure on reducing scepticism may take time to emerge,” Professor Hong says.

The study also highlights the role of personal experience in shaping opinions. While individuals with stronger conspiracy mentalities are more likely to hold climate change conspiracy beliefs, their attitudes could still shift based on personal experiences and increased exposure to relevant information.

“The increased information exposure may help people with a conspiracy mentality to develop a better scientific understanding of climate change, as exposure to non-hoax narratives and climate change discussion may contribute to enhancing the perceived scientific consensus on the issue,” says Professor Hong.

What businesses can do to address climate change scepticism?

The intensified challenges posed by climate change require various sectors, including businesses, to collaborate to tackle these pressing issues. Embracing sustainability not only nurtures healthy global ecosystems but also fosters the prosperity of businesses.

Nevertheless, scepticism about climate change remains a barrier. “Climate change sceptics will not be willing to engage in pro-environmental behaviours nor to support pro-environmental policies and regulations,” Professor Hong says. “This can undermine the sustainability effort by government and businesses.”

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The current research highlights the potential for shifting climate change conspiracy, suggesting that occurrences of temperature anomalies could be a crucial opportunity to promote scientific understanding of this phenomenon. “Businesses can be ‘change’ agents on this matter. They can enhance their collaborations with scientific institutions and help to promote scientific understanding of climate change via their marketing and public relations activities,” Professor Hong says.

In conclusion, she emphasises that sustainability stands as one of the fundamental pillars of the human future. Therefore, companies that can harness its power are poised to flourish in the years to come.